Liner’s CFOs are getting used to using the grinder during the pandemic. Forecasts have tended to be far off, leading many carriers to repeatedly revise their full-year forecasts.
The latest to do so today – for the second time in three months – is AP Møller – Mærsk, often seen as a bellwether for the container shipping segment.
With revenue up $21.7 billion and underlying EBITDA of $10.3 billion for the second quarter, Maersk today cited continued congestion in global supply chains for freight rates always high.
Maersk said it now expects to post full-year EBITDA of around $37 billion, down from an earlier revised forecast of $30 billion. The carrier had started in 2022, forecast full-year profits to be in the $24 billion range, which is now down more than 50%, a stark illustration of what a banner year is. liner shipping in 2022. Maersk will officially release its second quarter results tomorrow.
“Several carriers have raised their earnings outlook for 2022,” Lars Jensen, CEO of shipping consultancy Vespucci Maritime, pointed out in a post on LinkedIn today, explaining, “On the surface, this appears to contradict the narrative of a declining market, but the reality is that if spot rates are down, contract rates for 2022 are significantly higher than 2021. And while contracts will be under pressure (some already are), and even if/when some contracts could be lowered, it could well be to levels even exceeding what was seen in 2021.”